Trump Leads in Pennsylvania Poll as Gender and Racial Divides Shape Voter Preferences

PENNSYLVANIA—A new Quinnipiac University poll indicates a highly competitive presidential race in Pennsylvania. Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The survey, conducted October 24-28 among 2,186 likely voters, suggests gender and voting methods could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome in one of the nation’s key battleground states.

According to the poll, Trump leads with 47% of likely voters in a multi-candidate field, followed closely by Harris with 46%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver hold 2% and 1% support, respectively.

This close margin recalls Pennsylvania’s razor-thin results in recent elections, including Trump’s 0.72-point win over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden’s 1.17-point margin in 2020.

Independent voters, who could be critical in deciding Pennsylvania’s electoral outcome, are split evenly between Trump and Harris, with each receiving 43% support.

Sharp Gender Divide Emerges

The poll reveals a significant gender divide, with men favouring Trump 57% to 37%, a gap that has widened over the past month. Women strongly support Harris, giving her a 55% to 39% advantage. Polling Director Tim Malloy noted that this divide continues to grow as the election approaches, with Trump’s gains among male voters propelling his recent momentum.

Racial demographics further highlight contrasting support, with Trump leading among white voters by 53% to 42%, while Harris dominates among Black voters, capturing 73% to Trump’s 15%. A gender gap also appears within racial groups; Harris leads among nonwhite men but by a narrower 52% to 35%.

Voting Patterns May Affect Final Count

Voting methods could also impact the outcome, with early data suggesting a division between Election Day and mail-in voters. Trump is projected to win 55% of in-person voters on Election Day, while 63% of mail-in and absentee voters are expected to support Harris, compared to Trump’s 32%. State data also reveals that 881,779 registered Democrats have already cast mail ballots, significantly outnumbering the 501,736 Republicans who have done so.

Malloy noted the potential for a significant delay in final results, with in-person votes favouring Trump on Election Day and mail-in ballots possibly shifting the overall count in the days following.

Senate Race Narrows as McCormick Gains on Casey

The poll also shows a tightening Senate race, with Republican candidate Dave McCormick trailing Democratic incumbent Bob Casey by just three points, 50% to 47%. This marks a notable gain for McCormick, who previously lagged by eight points in earlier polling. However, Casey continues to lead among independent voters, holding a 52% to 42% advantage.

Both parties are expected to intensify their campaigns as Pennsylvania remains critical in national politics. As the state heads into Election Day, gender, race, and voting methods are poised to play defining roles in what is shaping up to be a closely watched and potentially historic election.