“World’s Most Accurate Economist” Predicts Trump Victory and GOP Control of Congress on Election Day

The chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, Christophe Barraud, widely recognised as the “world’s most accurate economist,” predicts that Donald Trump will win the presidency and that Republicans will likely secure complete control of Congress in the upcoming election on November 5.

Barraud’s analysis, based on various metrics, including betting markets, polls, and forecasts from election modellers, suggests a strong possibility of a Trump victory and a clean sweep for the GOP. In a post on X, he stated, “Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modellers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep.”

Bloomberg has ranked Christophe Barraud as the best forecaster of the US economy for 11 of the past 12 years. AFP via Getty Images

According to Bloomberg, Barraud, at just 38 years old, has earned the title of the best economic forecaster for the U.S. economy in 11 of the past 12 years. He indicated that all signs currently point to a Trump victory and a Republican takeover of the Senate. While control of the House of Representatives may be more challenging for Republicans, he expressed confidence in their chances.

Vice President Kamala Harris has called herself the “underdog” in her race against Trump. AFP via Getty Images

However, Barraud also noted that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, there would likely be a continuation of the status quo, with a split control of Congress. He elaborated that if Trump were to win but face a divided Congress, much of his domestic economic agenda could stall, potentially leading him to focus on tariffs. This approach, he warned, could have long-term adverse effects on the U.S. economy and global growth.

Barraud anticipates a GDP growth increase of approximately 2.1% to 2.3% by 2025 in what he considers the most probable scenario—a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress. He mentioned that regardless of who occupies the White House, the U.S. economy is expected to perform well in the short term.

Nevertheless, he raised concerns about Trump potentially slashing taxes without a sustainable funding strategy, which could significantly increase the national deficit. Barraud predicted that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield would initially rise to 4.5% from its current level of around 4.29% and eventually reach about 5%.

Regardless of who wins the presidential race, the economist believes the US economy will likely continue to hum along in the short term. REUTERS

Overall, Barraud believes that a Trump administration would likely lead to U.S. GDP growth surpassing most consensus forecasts, which currently estimate a 2.6% growth for 2024 and 1.8% for 2025. Despite the unpredictable nature of the race, most recent polls indicate a competitive contest, with Trump leading in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national and battleground-state polling.

Adding to the mix of predictions, election “Nostradamus” historian Dr Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine out of the last ten elections, is betting on Harris to win. Meanwhile, renowned polling data expert Nate Silver has expressed a gut feeling that Trump will come out on top. With the election just eight days away, all eyes are on the forthcoming results.