Five TDs compete in a tight two-week Fine Gael leadership race, with a favored contender possibly becoming the youngest Taoiseach

The Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach), Leo Varadkar, is set to lead the country until Fine Gael elects a new leader at the party’s Ard Dheis on April 6.

Following this transition, the newly elected Fine Gael leader will assume the role of Taoiseach and determine the future course of the government, including the possibility of calling for an election or maintaining the coalition with Fianna Fail and the Greens until March of the following year.

If an election is called, it is likely to coincide with the scheduled local and European elections on June 7. Fianna Fail and the Greens advocate for the continuation of the coalition until the end of its term next year rather than opting for a snap election.

Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin emphasized the coalition’s commitment to governance and program implementation, emphasizing that the coalition transcends individual personalities. Similarly, Green leader Eamon Ryan cited the government’s constitutional mandate, signalling their intention to fulfil their obligations until the end of March next year.

Electing a leader in Fine Gael heavily relies on the parliamentary party members. TDs, Senators, and MEPs collectively hold 65% of the voting power for the new leader, followed by regular members at 25% and local councillors at 10%.

Given this power distribution, the party’s next leader, Fine Gael, will predominantly be decided by the party’s TDs, Senators, and MEPs. Speculations regarding potential successors began shortly after Varadkar’s resignation, focusing intensely on critical contenders within the party.

Simon Harris – 3/10:
Simon Harris emerges as a frontrunner for the leadership position, with significant support among Fine Gael TDs. Known for his leadership during the early stages of the Covid crisis as Minister for Health, Harris enjoys popularity, particularly among young voters. His relatively smooth transition to the Ministry of Higher Education further solidifies his candidacy.

Simon Harris is considered the frontrunnerCredit: PA: Press Association

Helen McEntee – 8/1
Helen McEntee’s political trajectory has been marked by rapid ascension, positioning her as a potential candidate for the leadership role. Despite her impressive tenure as Justice Minister, recent events such as the Dublin riots have tarnished her reputation within the party. Nevertheless, McEntee remains a formidable contender, especially considering her previous successes.

Helen McEntee has had a tough few months—credit: 2023 PA Media, All Rights Reserved.

Heather Humphreys – 14/1
Heather Humphreys, admired for her Social Protection and Rural Affairs Minister role, initially harboured aspirations for becoming Ireland’s first female Taoiseach. However, recent developments have complicated her prospects. While Humphreys enjoys widespread support within the party, external factors may hinder her path to leadership.

Heather Humphreys was Fine Gael’s Director of Elections for the recent referendums on Family and CareCredit: EPA.

Paschal Donohoe – 5/1

Despite being a favourite for the top job, Paschal Donohoe has consistently stated his disinterest in leading his party. The Public Expenditure Minister is highly regarded not only within Fine Gael but also within the coalition government.

Despite the challenges of negotiating budgets, Donohoe maintains popularity among his colleagues and demonstrates composure in media appearances and parliamentary debates.

Donohoe’s global recognition as President of the Eurogroup adds to his profile, but his reluctance to pursue the party leadership casts doubt on his candidacy.

Rumours suggest Donohoe may explore opportunities outside of politics, such as a potential position in the IMF, indicating alternative career aspirations.

There have been rumours that Paschal Donohoe could take up a position in the IMFCredit: Getty Images – Getty

Hildegarde Naughton – 50/1

Hildegarde Naughton, a member of the Fine Gael contingency at Cabinet, was seen alongside Leo Varadkar, indicating her proximity to the highest levels of government. However, her current role suggests that she may not be in contention for the position of Taoiseach.

When asked about her potential candidacy for the leadership position on RTE, the Galway TD remained non-committal, stating that “nobody in the party would rule themselves out.

Despite her presence in government, Naughton’s public recognition is limited, and she has never held a senior cabinet portfolio. This lack of visibility may diminish her chances of being elected as leader of Fine Gael.

Within the ranks of junior ministers, individuals like Jennifer Carroll MacNeill may have a more substantial chance of securing the top spot due to their popularity among TDs.

Simon Coveney – 7/1:

Simon Coveney, once considered a frontrunner by bookmakers, has stated his disinterest in pursuing the top job within Fine Gael.

The Cork South-Central TD previously contested for leadership in 2017 when Enda Kenny stepped down. Despite securing significant support, he was ultimately defeated by Leo Varadkar.

In the 2017 election, Coveney garnered backing from 10 TDs, eight senators, two MEPs, and 65 councillors. However, most of those who supported him are no longer in the party, with only four remaining TDs, including Simon Harris.

Despite his previous bid and continued popularity within the party, Coveney has indicated that he is not interested in running for the leadership this time.

As Minister for Enterprise, Coveney remains well-liked within the party and has delivered impactful speeches, such as his address at the national party’s conference last year. While he may have considerable support if he were to enter the race, his decision not to run affects the dynamics of the leadership contest.