March 31, 2025 – Defense ministers from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have warned that a ceasefire in Ukraine would enable Russia to redeploy up to 300,000 troops to NATO’s eastern flank, significantly escalating security concerns in the region.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that Russia could rapidly reposition its forces near the Baltics and Finland, taking advantage of any pause in the conflict.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė echoed these concerns, emphasizing that Moscow would use the opportunity to further expand its military presence. She stressed that Russia’s battlefield-trained army is already growing and that its ambitions extend beyond Ukraine.
Russia’s upcoming “Zapad” military exercises, scheduled for this autumn, are expected to involve large-scale drills near NATO borders in Belarus and western Russia.
These maneuvers simulate conflict scenarios with the alliance and demonstrate Moscow’s continued military preparations. Meanwhile, Poland and Romania have expressed reluctance to send forces to Ukraine, citing the need to safeguard their own borders.
Pevkur also warned against NATO peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, arguing that such deployments could weaken the alliance’s defenses in the Baltics.
Intelligence reports from Germany’s BND and Lithuania’s VSD suggest that Russia is actively recruiting new soldiers and plans to build a 1.5-million-strong army by 2026.
Analysts predict that by 2030, Russia could have the capability to launch a large-scale conventional war against NATO. Despite international sanctions, Moscow’s military-industrial sector continues to expand, with its defense budget expected to reach $130 billion in 2025.
These warnings come amid stalled U.S.-led peace talks and increased tensions following Ukraine’s recent incursions into Russia’s Kursk region. Reports indicate that President Trump is growing frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the ongoing conflict, with the U.S. considering oil tariffs as a potential pressure tactic.
Baltic leaders are urging NATO to prepare for the possibility of a post-ceasefire scenario in which Russia redirects its war efforts westward. Šakalienė cautioned that this is not a hypothetical concern but a tangible threat, underscoring the need for immediate strategic planning within the alliance.
