Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to accept an invitation from President-elect Donald Trump to attend his inauguration on January 20, a move experts say carries too many diplomatic risks.
Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed on Thursday that the invitation had been extended, but analysts believe it will have little impact on the increasingly competitive U.S.-China relationship.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington declined to comment, stating it had no information to share.
However, foreign policy experts see the possibility of Xi attending as highly improbable.
“Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, D.C., in January at the feet of the podium, surrounded by hawkish members of Congress, gazing up at Donald Trump as he delivers his inaugural address?” said Danny Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
Russel, who now serves as vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, believes Xi would not accept a role that reduces him to “a mere guest celebrating the triumph of a foreign leader — the U.S. president, no less.”
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, echoed these sentiments, noting that there is no protocol or precedent for a Chinese leader attending a U.S. presidential inauguration. “I don’t think the Chinese will take the risk,” Sun said.
Potential diplomatic challenges include the guest list, Sun added. For instance, Taiwan’s top diplomat in the U.S. attended President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021. Given Beijing’s stance that Taiwan is part of its territory, such a scenario poses a significant risk, as China considers Taiwan a red line that must not be crossed.
Xi’s attendance would also be politically risky if Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods after taking office. “Xi would look like a fool if he had chosen to attend, and that’s unacceptable to Beijing,” Sun explained.
Chinese officials have long prioritized dignity and security during international trips, according to Russel. “They have always demanded that any leader trip to Washington be treated as a full ‘state visit’ with all the bells and whistles,” he said, referring to his experience negotiating high-level summits with China.
Despite Xi’s likely absence from the inauguration, experts expect Trump and Xi to meet in person soon.
Russel noted that Trump prefers face-to-face meetings with key international adversaries, and Beijing may believe it can negotiate more effectively with Trump directly.
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to heighten tensions with China. His Cabinet selections, including Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser, signal a tougher stance toward Beijing.
While China has adopted a “wait-and-see” approach, Beijing has made it clear it will retaliate if the U.S. raises tariffs or takes other unfriendly measures.
Sun cautioned that Trump’s invitation does not necessarily indicate a softening toward China. “Trump visited China in 2017 and ‘played nice,’ but the following year he launched the trade war,” she said.
“For Trump, there’s no contradiction between carrot and stick. For China, that’s a contradiction. It will add to China’s desire to play safe, not to be played by Trump, whether it is a friendly or a hostile message,” Sun concluded.
