The threat of World War Three has never been so palpable, with ominous warnings from Russia, missile strikes in the Middle East, and uneasy diplomacy in China. In a recent speech, UK Defence Minister Grant Shapps declared that international relations have entered ‘a new era’ and that the UK must be prepared to deter enemies, lead allies, and defend the nation whenever the call comes. Shapps identified Russia, China, and Iran as posing severe threats, calling them ‘unstable’ and ‘irrational’.
Former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace also alluded to the possibility of war in an interview last year, stating that Britain would be at war by 2030′. With Russia’s war in Ukraine showing no signs of ending, tensions rising in the Middle East, and a new president putting the spotlight back on Taiwan, could the UK be drawn into conflict even sooner? This article will explore what we know about the potential for World War Three, the countries and situations that pose the greatest threat, and what actions the UK government is taking to prepare for the worst.
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By joining the Metro WhatsApp community, you can stay informed about the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The situation on the ground has remained much the same since Vladimir Putin’s invasion, with Ukraine’s army regaining some territory in recent counteroffensives. However, the conflict is far from over, with Russia’s plan to launch a spring offensive in Ukraine in February, according to a leaked document from the German Ministry of Defence. The Russian President plans to boost his country’s military with an additional 170,000 troops, signalling Russia’s commitment to step up the conflict.
Yemenis recently trained by the Houthi movement hold their guns and chant slogans as they take part in an armed famous parade held in Sanaa’s Al-Sabeen Square (Picture: Getty Images)
The report from the German Ministry of Defence also warns that Russia could launch covert attacks on NATO territory as early as July this year. Therefore, staying informed about the latest developments in the ongoing conflict is essential. Join the Metro WhatsApp community now to receive vital updates and top trending stories straight to your phone.
What is NATO?
NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. It is a political and military alliance formed in 1949 between North American and European countries. The primary purpose of NATO is to protect its members from external threats through collective defence. Each member country has pledged to protect each other if attacked.
Currently, NATO has 31 members, including Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Sweden has applied to join NATO.
If a NATO member is attacked, the treaty says that member states would be required to take such action as it deems necessary, including using armed force’. This means that a Russian assault on a NATO member could trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which means the country under attack would be entitled to help from other countries in the alliance. The UK and other NATO members would not be obliged to declare war on Russia, but it remains a possibility.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, which is why the UK did not go to war with Russia following the 2022 invasion. However, the UK has pledged almost £12 billion in support to Ukraine, as well as supplying tanks and strike missiles and providing training to Ukrainian troops.
There are already signs that Russia is prepared to breach NATO borders. In December, a Russian drone crater was discovered in a Romanian village. In this situation, the UK and other NATO countries would likely deploy troops.
Overall, NATO is a political and military alliance that aims to protect its members from external threats through collective defence. The coalition has 31 members, and each member has pledged to protect each other if attacked. If a NATO member is attacked, the treaty says that member states would be required to take such action as it deems necessary, including using armed force’.
What’s Happening in the Middle East—and Could It Escalate?
The Middle East has been in the spotlight since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 and Israel’s subsequent bombardment of the Gaza Strip. As a result, the Houthis, a political militant group that controls much of northern Yemen, launched a targeted campaign of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The group claims to be targeting Israeli-linked vessels in support of the Palestinian people.
The UK and US launched military strikes on rebel targets on January 11 in response to the Houthi assaults. Officials say that airstrikes hit logistical hubs, air defence systems, and weapons storage locations. The US has put together the coalition Prosperity Guardian to counter the attacks within this region, which involves several countries, and the priority is to provide air cover for commercial vessels operating within this region.
Corey Ranslem, CEO of maritime intelligence company Dryad Global, stated that clashes between the US and the Houthis could continue in the coming weeks. He added that the US and UK said the strikes were acts of “self-defence.” US President Joe Biden warned that the US could retaliate further, saying, “We will make sure that we respond to the Houthis if they continue this outrageous behaviour along with our allies.”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the actions of the Houthi rebels represented the “biggest attack on the Royal Navy for decades.” He added that the UK launched strikes on two Houthi sites in “limited, necessary, and proportionate self-defence.”
The Houthis are fighting a Saudi Arabia-backed military coalition in Yemen’s civil war, which has been ongoing for almost a decade. The UK, which sees Saudi Arabia as an ally, has supplied weapons to the Saudi-led side for seven years.
Despite its relationship with Saudi Arabia and strikes on Houthi forces, recent statements have made it clear that the UK wants to avoid war in the region. In a joint statement from the US, the UK, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and South Korea, the “aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea.”
The Houthis are backed by Iran, which supports several groups across the Middle East as part of its “Axis of Resistance.” Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, opposes Israeli and American power in the Middle East.
The situation in the Middle East is complex and could escalate further if tensions are not de-escalated. The UK and US have made it clear that they will respond to the Houthis if they continue their attacks. How the situation will develop in the coming weeks remains to be seen.
What is Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’?
The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is a military alliance of Islamist groups that Iran has built up over four decades. Its primary objective is to oppose Israeli and American power in the Middle East. Other alliance members include the Houthis, the Lebanese rebel group Hezbollah, and several militia groups in Iraq. Hamas, the Palestinian group that has run Gaza since 2007, is also a member of the alliance.
Iran has used the’ Axis of Resistance’ to project power, determine the course of events, and deter attacks by Israel or the US. However, Iran said that it was not informed of Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel on October 7 before it happened, adding that it would not directly intervene in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
In recent days, Iran has launched attacks on three countries in the Middle East. On Tuesday, it carried out strikes in Pakistan, reportedly killing two children. Pakistan called the attack an ‘illegal act’ and an ‘unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran’. In retaliation, Pakistan hurled a volley of missiles into Iran on Thursday, killing three women and four children.
Both countries believe the other is harbouring militant groups. Iran said its strikes on Pakistan were aimed at Jaish al-Adl, a militant group that has carried out attacks in Iran. In contrast, Pakistan said it was targeting Baloch separatist groups inside Iran. Iran has also attacked groups in Iraq and Syria this week.
The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is a potent coalition but also a risky strategy. The loose-knit alliance includes both Sunni and Shia Muslim groups and governments in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq, with differences and tensions between them.
Is China a threat to the UK?
China’s relationship with Taiwan has been a subject of tension in recent years. Taiwan is a self-governed island nation located 100 miles off the coast of China. However, it is neither officially independent from China nor united with it. Many Taiwanese people want their country to be recognised as separate from China.
Earlier in January, Taiwanese voters elected Lai Ching-te as their new President. Lai is seen as a dangerous supporter of Taiwan’s independence from China. While Lai said he had an ‘important responsibility to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits’, he also cautioned that he was ‘determined to safeguard Taiwan from threats and intimidation from China’.
China views Taiwan as a part of its territory, and President Xi Jinping wants Taiwan to be united with China. As a result, China sees Lai’s election as a threat to its territorial claims in Taiwan.
While only 13 nations recognise Taiwan as a state, the United States is one of its key allies. The US has made a legal commitment to provide Taiwan with weapons if it needs to defend itself.
The UK government has no plans to recognise Taiwan as an independent state. However, the relationship between the two countries has strengthened in recent years, with the UK sending its warships on operations through the Taiwan Strait.
Last year, a group of British MPs called on the government to give Taiwan ‘as much help as possible’ to defend itself against China. However, it is unclear whether China plans ever to invade Taiwan.
Former foreign secretary James Cleverly has warned that ‘no country could shield itself from the repercussions of a war in Taiwan’. Despite this, the UK government has not designated China as a threat to the UK.
In summary, while tensions between China and Taiwan have been a subject of concern, there is no evidence to suggest that China is a direct threat to the UK. However, the UK’s relationship with Taiwan is one to watch, as it could potentially impact the UK’s diplomatic ties with China.
Is the UK prepared for war?
Defence Spending
The UK spends approximately £50 billion annually on defence, which includes the Royal Navy, the British Army, and the Royal Air Force. This spending is expected to increase as the government invests in defence, hardens critical infrastructure, and builds alliances.
Deployment
The Ministry of Defence recently announced that 20,000 troops from the three military branches would be deployed across Europe in the first half of 2024. This is one of the largest NATO deployments since the Cold War, and it indicates that the UK is taking steps to prepare for any potential conflicts.
Next Generation Dreadnought Submarines
The UK government plans to spend approximately £13 billion on developing next-generation Dreadnought submarines. These submarines carry Trident nuclear missiles, a crucial part of the UK’s defence strategy. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps stated, “If we are to defend our homeland, we must ensure our entire defence eco-system is ready.”
Need-to-Know Information
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