The UK population is expected to grow to 72.5 million by mid-2032, representing a 7.3% increase over the next decade, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, the data reveals that this rate of growth will actually be slower than the previous 25 years.
Key ONS Projections
- Population increase: 4.9 million by mid-2032.
- Migration impact: Migration is expected to average 340,000 annually from mid-2028 onwards, contributing significantly to growth.
- Births and deaths: Natural change (difference between births and deaths) is projected to be approximately zero, with 6.8 million births and 6.8 million deaths during this period.
- Population by 2047: The UK population could rise by 8.9 million, reaching a total of 13.2% growth over 25 years.
Population Growth by Nation (Mid-2022 to Mid-2032)
- England: +7.8%
- Wales: +5.9%
- Scotland: +4.4%
- Northern Ireland: +2.1%
Ageing Population Trends
The UK will also see a significant demographic shift towards an ageing population:
- The number of people aged 85 and over is projected to nearly double, reaching 3.3 million by 2047.
- Those at state pension age (including the planned increase to 67 years) will rise by 1.7 million, from 12.0 million to 13.7 million by 2032.
- By 2032, over 10% of the population will be aged 75 and older, up from 9.1% in 2022.
Political Reaction and Misinterpretations
The projections have sparked renewed debate over migration and population growth:
- Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party criticized both Labour and the Conservatives, blaming them for population increases.
- Chris Philp, Conservative shadow home secretary, called for a “hard, binding legal cap” on visas.
- Downing Street acknowledged the importance of reducing migration but dismissed calls for strict caps.
ONS expert James Robards emphasized that migration remains the primary driver of population growth, while natural change is stagnant. The ageing baby boomer generation and increases in life expectancy are also key contributors to demographic shifts.
While the data has been widely cited in political discourse, ONS noted that it is often misinterpreted, urging a nuanced understanding of the figures.