LONDON — Net migration to the UK could rise back towards 300,000 by the end of the decade, according to the chair of the government’s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), despite a sharp fall in recent years.
Professor Brian Bell said the current net migration figure of around 204,000 is unlikely to remain at that level, warning that overseas student and worker numbers are expected to increase again in the medium term.
His comments come as immigration re-emerges as a central political issue ahead of the next general election, with Labour leader Keir Starmer pledging in his election manifesto to bring net migration down.
‘Bounceback’ Expected Despite Recent Decline
Speaking ahead of the publication of two new MAC reports, Bell said a rise in net migration would be consistent with forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which last month suggested immigration levels could increase again before the end of the decade.
“I might expect a bit of a bounceback that’s consistent with what the OBR predict in their economic and fiscal outlook,” Bell said. “They expect it to return to more like 300,000 in the medium term and I think that’s a reasonable prediction.”
Net migration the number of people moving to the UK minus those leaving reached a record high of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, driven largely by post-pandemic labour shortages and policies introduced under Boris Johnson’s government to encourage overseas workers.
Since then, the figure has fallen sharply.
ONS Data Shows Sharp Drop in Migration
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a 69% fall in net migration in the year to June 2025, down from 649,000 in the previous year.
The data shows that just under 900,000 people immigrated to the UK between July 2024 and June 2025 — more than 400,000 fewer than the year before.
At the same time, emigration increased, with 693,000 people leaving the UK, up 43,000 compared with the previous year.
Despite the sharp decline, Bell cautioned against assuming the fall would be permanent, noting that policy changes, labour demand and international student flows could push numbers higher again.
Family Migration and Fiscal Impact
The MAC also used the publication of its reports to highlight the long-term fiscal impact of family migration routes.
The committee estimates that people who enter the UK on family visas to live with partners will cost the public finances around £5.6 billion over their lifetimes.
In 2022–23, approximately 51,000 people entered the UK under partner and family visa routes, which allow them to live and work in the country.
According to the committee’s analysis, more than half of those arrivals were unemployed, and each individual was projected to represent a net fiscal cost of £109,000 over their lifetime.
Political Pressure Mounts Ahead of Election
Immigration is expected to play a prominent role in the upcoming general election campaign, with both Labour and the Conservatives under pressure to balance economic needs with public concern over migration levels, housing demand and pressure on public services.
While net migration has fallen sharply from its historic peak, Bell’s comments suggest the UK may face renewed political and economic challenges if numbers rise again later in the decade.w
