Trump’s Second Term May Cut African Aid, While Focusing on Projects to Counter China’s Influence

Donald Trump’s potential second term as U.S. president may lead to cuts in American aid to Africa. However, projects aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are likely to continue receiving U.S. funding, experts suggest.

During his first term, Trump reduced funding for various African initiatives, prompting criticism that he had largely neglected the continent.

The U.S. remains Africa’s most significant aid contributor, with funding surpassing $3.7 billion in the previous year. However, concerns are growing that an emboldened Trump could further scale back critical projects, such as the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), a bipartisan initiative combating HIV/AIDS across Africa.

Despite these concerns, analysts predict the U.S. will continue to finance major projects focused on countering China and Russia’s growing influence in Africa, as well as securing essential minerals for the green energy transition.

As part of its ambitious Belt and Road scheme, China, Africa’s largest trading partner, has invested billions of dollars in infrastructure projects, including ports, railways, dams, and roads.

Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance in Cape Town, noted that the global geopolitical divide puts African nations in a difficult position.

He warned that African countries may face increased pressure to align with major powers like the U.S. or China, risking alienation or trade disadvantages based on their decisions. Lopes suggested this could create a “Cold War-like” atmosphere in Africa, driven by access to markets, technology, and financing rather than ideological differences.

One significant project that may continue under Trump’s leadership is the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), which was introduced in 2022 by U.S. President Joe Biden and the Group of Seven (G7) to rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The $600 billion PGII aims to provide infrastructure alternatives to China’s influence on the continent.

Among the PGII-backed projects is the Lobito railway, a multibillion-dollar upgrade connecting Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This project aims to create transcontinental connectivity from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, facilitating the extraction of critical minerals for electric vehicle production. Lopes indicated that the U.S. could continue supporting the Lobito railway, as it would serve as a strategic counter to Chinese dominance in the region’s mineral resources.

However, he cautioned that projects like this could become more selective, driven by geopolitical motives rather than developmental needs.

Trump’s first term saw U.S. influence in Africa reach its lowest point, with his administration criticized for neglecting the continent. Trump also made controversial remarks about Africa, and notably did not visit the region during his presidency.

However, his administration did establish initiatives like Prosper Africa in 2018 to foster U.S. investment in Africa and the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which has since financed over $10 billion in African projects.

Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at FIM Partners, predicts that aid to Africa could significantly decrease if Trump wins a second term.

He believes that funding may still be allocated to projects to counter China’s influence, such as the Lobito Corridor. Robertson also pointed out Trump’s threats to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on African nations. Additionally, he warned that higher interest rates in the U.S. under a second Trump term could raise borrowing costs for African countries. At the same time, a strong dollar would further worsen the situation.

Seifudein Adem, a research fellow at the JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development in Tokyo, described Trump’s first-term foreign policy as “pragmatic non-committal,” with a focus on transactional, unilateral decisions. He argued that if a project aligns with U.S. interests, Trump will likely support it—especially if it serves the nation’s economic or geopolitical goals.

Cameron Hudson, a former U.S. official and senior associate at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, believes there will be continuity in U.S. Africa policy under Trump, noting that bipartisan support exists for addressing strategic minerals, countering terrorism, and limiting China’s geopolitical ambitions.

Hudson expects Trump to strengthen the PGII initiative, recognising its value in bolstering U.S. business interests in Africa.

In addition to foreign policy, Trump’s approach to immigration could impact Africa.

His administration’s previous immigration policies, including a travel ban on citizens from several African nations, were widely criticized. With growing concerns over illegal migration, particularly from West Africa, Trump may seek to expand such restrictions in the future.

Adem emphasized that there is a rising intolerance towards immigrants from the Global South in the U.S., a sentiment Trump has leveraged to support his political agenda.