Trump’s Conviction Influences Significant Number of Republicans to Withdraw Support – Poll

In the wake of former President Trump’s criminal conviction in New York, a fresh poll reveals a noteworthy shift among Republicans regarding their support for him in the upcoming November elections.

Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower on Thursday, May 30, 2024, after being found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. (Felipe Ramales for Fox News Digital)

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted immediately after Trump’s felony conviction for falsifying business records, indicated that one in ten registered GOP voters expressed less inclined to support him for president. The poll, which closed on Friday, occurred just hours after a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of all charges brought against him by District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

While most Republican voters (56%) claimed the conviction’s outcome wouldn’t affect their vote, 35% even stated they were more likely to support Trump, who maintains his innocence.

Nonetheless, the potential loss of a tenth of Republican voters could significantly impact the presumptive GOP nominee’s chances, particularly in key battleground states President Biden secured in the 2020 election. With Biden’s victories in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, decided by just 44,000 votes, Trump’s dwindling support among Republicans could prove pivotal in the upcoming contest.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacts as the verdict is read in his criminal trial over charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, at Manhattan state court in New York City on May 30, 2024, in this courtroom sketch. (REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg)

Among independent registered voters, 25% indicated that Trump’s conviction made them less likely to support him, 18% expressed increased likelihood, and 56% claimed the sentence wouldn’t influence their decision.

Despite these shifts, the Reuters/Ipsos survey revealed a close race between Biden and Trump, with 41% of voters favouring Biden and 39% favouring Trump. The survey, encompassing 2,556 U.S. adults nationwide, possessed a two percentage point margin of error for registered voters, with the presidential election looming just over five months away.

Despite the conviction, many Republicans have rallied behind Trump, which is evident in his campaign’s impressive fundraising numbers, totalling $53 million within 24 hours of the guilty verdict.

Trump’s sentencing, scheduled for July 11, marks a pivotal moment, with survey respondents divided on whether he should serve prison time. While 53% of registered voters opposed his incarceration for the hush money case, 46% advocated for it.

Trump after the verdict: This is long from over

Looking ahead, Trump’s conviction and potential imprisonment wouldn’t automatically disqualify him from running for president, as the Republican National Convention is set to convene in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, mere days after his sentencing. However, the RNC’s rules lack specific provisions addressing the scenario of a presumptive nominee’s criminal conviction.

Trump has vehemently denounced his prosecution as politically motivated, characterizing it as a “witch hunt.” The public opinion is split, with 52% viewing the trial as upholding the rule of law and 46% perceiving it as an attempt to thwart Trump’s return to the White House.

With three other criminal cases pending against Trump, the possibility of further trials before the November election looms. Most registered voters (60%) consider it essential for these trials to occur before the election, underscoring the significance of Trump’s legal battles in shaping the political landscape.