Former President Trump has taken the lead among Jewish voters in New York, according to a recent Siena Research Institute poll released Tuesday.
The poll shows that Trump supports 50% of likely Jewish voters in the state, slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who garnered 49% support.
This marks a significant shift from June when President Biden led Trump among likely Jewish voters by 52% to 46%. The political landscape changed dramatically after Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, who quickly secured the Democratic nomination.
Harris’ rise to the top of the Democratic ticket comes amid concerns from some Israel supporters about her stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Critics argue that Harris has distanced herself from the Biden administration since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. She was the first administration official to call for an “immediate cease-fire” in March and warned of “consequences” for Israel if it went ahead with an invasion of Rafah.
Harris has also faced scrutiny over her relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly after avoiding questions about whether he had become an “obstacle to peace.” In response, Harris emphasized the need to prioritize security and dignity for both Israelis and Palestinians, condemning the high number of Palestinian casualties.
The poll’s release coincides with Harris selecting Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, the only Jewish candidate considered. This decision has led to speculation that Shapiro’s limited popularity within the Democratic Party, especially given its more sympathetic stance towards Palestinians since the Gaza conflict, influenced Harris’s choice.
Jewish voters have traditionally supported Democratic candidates, averaging 71% to 26% in favour of Democrats over Republicans since 1968, according to the American Enterprise Institute. In the 2020 election, Jewish voters favoured Biden over Trump by 68% to 30%, and in 2016, they preferred Clinton over Trump by 71% to 26%.
Despite the shift among Jewish voters, Harris has strengthened her overall lead over Trump among all likely New York voters, now leading 53% to 39%. This represents a significant improvement from Biden’s previous eight- to ten-point lead.
The Siena College Research Institute poll surveyed 1,199 likely voters in New York, including 8% Jewish, between July 28 and August 1. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The Harris campaign has not yet responded to requests for comment.
