Trump Overtakes Harris in Major Poll Ahead of Crucial Debate

Former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in a critical national poll, signalling a potential shift in the momentum of the presidential race just ahead of their highly anticipated debate.

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump edged out Harris 48% to 47% among likely voters nationwide. This marks the first time in weeks that Trump has pulled ahead, raising concerns for Harris as her recent surge in the polls appears to have lost steam.

The poll suggests that Harris’ momentum is weakening ahead of Tuesday’s debate REUTERS

The poll results reflect a reversal from late July when Trump led Harris among likely voters following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race. Similar trends have emerged in other surveys, suggesting that the former president is regaining ground after the Democratic National Convention.

Trump’s narrow lead comes even though 70% of voters, including 37% of his supporters, believe that he has made offensive remarks.

Harris had previously surged in the polls after becoming the top Democratic candidate, even capturing the lead in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polls. She also gained traction in battleground state polls, which show tight competition.

On key issues, voters trust Harris more than Trump on abortion (54% to 49%) and democracy (50% to 45%).

However, according to the New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump holds an advantage on the economy (55% to 42%) and immigration (53% to 43%). The top concerns for voters include the economy (21%), abortion (14%), immigration (12%), inflation and the cost of living (7%), and democracy (7%).

The debate will have the potential to dramatically shakeup what appears to be a tossup race for the presidency, with about eight weeks to go until Nov. 5. AP

Democrats currently enjoy a slight enthusiasm advantage over Republicans, with 91% of Democratic voters expressing high levels of enthusiasm compared to 85% of Republicans. However, the poll also reveals that 56% of respondents do not see Harris as representing a significant change from the unpopular Biden administration. Only 25% believe she would bring significant change, while 51% view Trump as a candidate for substantial change.

Political strategists, including James Carville, have emphasised the importance of positioning as the “changemaker” candidate in this election. Carville recently suggested that Harris might need to publicly break from Biden on significant policy issues to strengthen her position.

Trump’s approval ratings have dipped slightly, with 46% of voters viewing him favourably, down from 48% in July. Meanwhile, Harris’ favourability trails Trump’s, with 45% viewing her favourably and 50% holding an unfavourable view.

An election data expert, Nate Silver, noted on X (formerly Twitter) that the poll results could change after the upcoming debate between Trump and Harris. Silver’s 2024 election forecast currently gives Trump higher odds of winning the Electoral College, though Harris is favoured to win the popular vote.

Trump and Harris are scheduled to debate in Philadelphia, hosted by ABC News. This will be the first time the two candidates will meet in person. The discussion could significantly impact the race, with only eight weeks remaining until Election Day on November 5.

The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 1,695 voters from September 3-6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Shortly after Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted that Harris would experience a “honeymoon” in the polls.

Despite this, Harris maintains that she is the “underdog” and takes nothing for granted. Her campaign has also touted a fundraising advantage, raising $361 million in August compared to Trump’s $130 million.

Sola Adeniji

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