Former President Trump maintains a lead in Nevada, a pivotal battleground state for the 2024 presidential election, according to a recent AARP poll released on Tuesday. The survey shows that Trump has a 3-percentage point advantage over President Biden among likely voters in Nevada, with 48% supporting Trump compared to 45% for Biden.
When including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead extends to a more comfortable 7 points. However, state Democrats contested Kennedy’s eligibility, and he has not yet been qualified for the Nevada ballot.
Trump’s support is notably more vital among voters over 50, who lead Biden by double digits at 53% to 41%. However, Biden maintains a lead among Hispanic voters in that age group, with 51% supporting Biden compared to 41% for Trump, highlighting the significance of the Hispanic vote in Nevada.
Nevada, historically a closely watched state in presidential elections, has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. Biden narrowly won the state in 2020 with 50.06% of the vote compared to Trump’s 47.67%.
Recent polling trends, including a Fox News poll earlier this month, continue to show a competitive race, with Trump leading Biden by a 5-point margin. Republicans are optimistic about their chances in Nevada, particularly after Governor Joe Lombardo’s victory over Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak in 2022.
Lombardo recently criticized Biden’s handling of the economy in a New York Times guest essay, highlighting dissatisfaction among Nevada voters regarding inflation and housing issues.
The AARP survey also indicated that only 40% of voters aged 50-plus approve of Biden’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. In contrast, 56% of older voters approve of Trump’s first presidential term.
In addition to the presidential race, the survey addressed Nevada’s U.S. Senate contest, where Senator Jacky Rosen leads Republican challenger Sam Brown 47% to 42%, supported significantly by Hispanic voters.
Economic concerns, rising food prices, immigration, and border security emerged as top issues for Nevada voters, underscoring the critical issues shaping the upcoming election.
Pollsters suggest that split-ticket voting among older voters may play a crucial role in determining the election outcome, with 23% indicating they are open to voting across party lines.
The AARP poll, conducted by Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward in collaboration with Democratic firm Impact Research, surveyed 1,368 likely voters from June 12 to 18, with a margin of error of 4%.
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