M10news – Former President Donald Trump holds a four-percentage-point lead over President Joe Biden in a national poll released ahead of their first 2024 televised presidential debate hosted by CNN on Thursday.
According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, 48% of the electorate indicated they would vote for Trump, the Republican candidate, if the presidential election were held today. Meanwhile, 44% said they would vote for Biden, the Democratic incumbent.
This marks a notable shift from April’s New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Trump leading Biden by a narrower margin of just one percentage point.
The poll also revealed significant discontent within both parties regarding their respective nominees. Among Democratic voters, 61% desired a different nominee than Biden, with only 33% supporting his continued candidacy. On the Republican side, 54% favoured a different nominee over Trump, while 41% supported his re-election bid.
Trump has made significant inroads with Black voters, with 26% of Black likely voters now supporting him for the 2024 election. This is a substantial increase from the 2020 election, where a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in June 2020 showed just 5% of Black registered voters supporting Trump, compared to 79% backing Biden.
This latest poll highlights a shifting political landscape as both candidates gear up for their first debate. The survey underscores Biden’s challenges, with many of his party seeking new leadership, and Trump’s notable gains among crucial voter demographics.
The poll comes at a critical time as the nation prepares to witness the first 2024 presidential debate, setting the tone for the campaigns leading up to the election.
The latest poll of 1,226 registered voters nationwide, including 991 who completed the entire survey, was conducted in English and Spanish via cellular and landline telephones from June 20 to 25, 2024.
Among its findings, the poll asked participants about their views on the age of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. A significant majority, 68%, agreed that Biden is too old to be an effective president, while 39% expressed the same concern about Trump.
Conducted after Trump’s criminal conviction in a hush-money case brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, the poll also revealed that 11% of respondents were more likely to support Trump following the conviction, while 19% were less likely. However, the majority (68%) indicated that Trump’s conviction did not affect their support for him.
Regarding perceptions of the charges against Trump, 55% believed the charges were primarily politically motivated, whereas 53% believed prosecutors charged Trump because they thought he committed crimes. Regarding sentencing, 55% felt Trump should not be sentenced to prison in the hush-money case, while 37% supported imprisonment.
With just over four months until Election Day, the upcoming televised debate on CNN presents a crucial opportunity for both candidates to influence the course of the election. This debate, scheduled for Thursday, marks the earliest general election debate in history and is notably hosted by a single news outlet after both campaigns opted out of the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates.
To maintain order and civility, both Biden and Trump have agreed to debate without an audience, with the network given the authority to mute candidates’ microphones when necessary. Unlike past debates, there will be only two commercial breaks, and candidates are prohibited from consulting staff or others when off-camera.
