U.S. intelligence officials have revealed that Russia, Iran, and China are ramping up their efforts to influence the 2024 U.S. elections, each backing different candidates to serve their strategic interests.
According to a Friday briefing from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the three nations must be unified in their preferences. Still, all see the election period as a vulnerable time to exacerbate divisions within American society.
The Kremlin is reportedly working to sway voters in favour of former President Donald Trump while attempting to diminish the prospects of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. In contrast, Iranian officials have signalled a preference for Harris over Trump, seeing the Democratic candidate as potentially less confrontational.
Conversely, China appears less focused on the presidential race and more concerned with down-ballot contests, targeting candidates in House and Senate races who threaten Beijing’s interests. This approach is consistent with China’s actions during the 2022 midterms, where the country’s influence efforts extended to various local and state-level elections.
Despite the varying strategies, all three nations share a common goal: exacerbating divisions within the United States. By amplifying controversial issues and spreading divisive rhetoric, these foreign actors aim to portray the U.S. democratic system as weak and keep the American government preoccupied with internal strife.
ODNI officials noted that while there have been no known active attempts to interfere directly with the election process, influence campaigns and propaganda efforts are underway.
Russia, identified as the most active foreign influence threat, is using state-controlled media like RT to spread narratives favourable to Moscow, with the broader goal of weakening U.S. support for Ukraine and undermining Washington’s global influence.
Iranian influence efforts have included hacking into Trump campaign data and spreading disinformation through fake news articles and false personas. Tehran has targeted both Trump and Harris, but with a particular focus on undermining the former president, likely in hopes of reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran should Harris win the election.
China’s focus on down-ballot races continues a pattern seen in recent elections. Notably, Beijing has also sought to inflame domestic divisions in the U.S. by promoting content on social media related to contentious issues such as Israel’s conflict with Hamas, a topic that has caused rifts within the Democratic Party.
The ODNI briefing highlighted ongoing nationwide foreign influence campaigns targeting state and local government officials. Officials warned of potential direct lobbying of political figures by overseas actors in the lead-up to the election, though specific plots were not detailed.
These developments come amid recent cases of foreign influence in U.S. politics. Notably, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was convicted in July for acting as an unregistered foreign agent, while Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) was indicted in May for allegedly accepting bribes from foreign entities.
Additionally, Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden’s son, recently pleaded guilty to tax fraud charges, avoiding accusations of violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) despite evidence that he had lobbied the U.S. Embassy in Italy on behalf of a Ukrainian gas company. This legal resolution came just a month after President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race.
