American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, renowned for accurately forecasting nine of the last ten presidential elections, has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will emerge victorious over former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race.
Lichtman, who gained fame for his unique prediction method, the “Keys to the White House,” shared his final verdict in a video released by the New York Times on Thursday.
According to Lichtman, Harris holds the advantage in eight of the 13 key categories, while Trump only has three, leaving the outcome in Harris’s favour. Despite this prediction, Lichtman urged voters, “The outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman developed the “Keys to the White House,” a system that assesses each major party candidate’s prospects based on 13 categories.
These include factors such as the state of the economy, social unrest, and whether the sitting president’s party gained seats in the House during the midterms.
While Lichtman has claimed to have correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, his assertion has sparked debate.
In 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win the presidency, which technically came true in the popular vote but was ultimately decided by the Electoral College in favour of George W. Bush. Similarly, Lichtman correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 victory despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
Critics, including analysts Lars Emerson and Michael Lovato of The Postrider, have questioned Lichtman’s accuracy. They argue that his streak ended either in 2000 or 2016, depending on whether one considers the popular vote or the Electoral College the decisive factor.
Lichtman’s 13 “Keys” include categories such as whether the incumbent is running for re-election (a critical Trump holds), the state of the economy, whether the sitting president’s party faced a primary challenge and the presence of a third-party candidate. For 2024, Lichtman argues that Biden’s administration, represented by Harris, holds the upper hand in most categories.
However, Lichtman acknowledged the complexity of the prediction, particularly in foreign policy, where Biden’s administration is deeply involved in the ongoing war in Gaza.
Lichtman noted that this key and another could potentially flip, but even with five negative keys, he argued it would not be enough for Trump to reclaim the White House.
The issue with @NateSilver538 is he’s a compiler of polls, a clerk. He has no fundamental basis in history and elections. If we bounced presidents based on perceived physical ailments we would have bounced FDR, Reagan, and JFK. https://t.co/ZBqPahDJuF
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 20, 2024
Lichtman, a registered Democrat, had previously advised his party against removing Biden from the top of the ticket following a poor debate performance in June, citing the strength of incumbency in his predictive model.
As the 2024 election cycle unfolds with all its uncertainties, Lichtman remains confident in his prediction, asserting that “the keys absolutely will work — they are the constant northern star of political prediction.” The first debate between Harris and Trump is scheduled for September 10 in Philadelphia, hosted by ABC News.
