Iran Worries Trump Victory Could Lead to Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Facilities and Increased Western Sanctions

Dubai (Reuters) — As the U.S. election looms, Iran and its allies across the Middle East are anxiously preparing for what they see as a potentially dire outcome: a second term for former President Donald Trump.

Tensions rise as opinion polls show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, neck-and-neck, with the November 5 vote edging closer.

Iran braces for Trump victory, fearing more Israeli strikes, Western sanctions | M10news

Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are especially wary of Trump’s return, fearing that his reimplementation of the “maximum pressure policy” could further strain Iran’s economy through renewed sanctions on its oil industry.

Officials in Tehran also fear that Trump would give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the green light for potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and assassinations targeting key figures.

In his previous administration from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear agreement, reimposed sanctions, and authorised the killing of Qassem Soleimani, a critical Iranian general. With heightened pressure expected, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may be pushed into a corner, potentially having to negotiate a new nuclear containment deal on terms more favourable to the U.S. and Israel.

Troops operating in the Gaza Strip in an undated photo released by the military for publication on November 3, 2024 (Israel Defense Forces)

The potential return of Trump has broader implications for the Middle East, likely to alter the power dynamics in the region and impact Iran’s foreign policy and economic strategy. Iran’s allies and proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, face a more robust Israeli military campaign aimed at weakening their influence, limiting Iran’s leverage even if Trump does not win the election. “Whether Harris or Trump wins, Iran’s leverage in the region is weaker,” said Abdelaziz al-Sagher of the Gulf Research Center.

Shiite Muslims burn an effigy of US President Donald Trump during a protest against the US strike that killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, in Multan on January 5, 2020. (SS MIRZA / AFP)

Preparing for the “Nightmare” Scenario

A senior Iranian official described a potential Trump victory as a “nightmare,” expressing concerns about Trump’s alignment with Netanyahu and his pledge to enforce stricter sanctions. “Our establishment could be economically paralysed,” the official stated. Nonetheless, Iran has decades of experience bypassing U.S. sanctions, and officials say they are prepared to weather further restrictions by leveraging strengthened international alliances.

In a recent campaign speech, Trump declared his reluctance to go to war with Iran. However, he emphasised his support for Israel’s right to act unilaterally, saying, “Israel should hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later.” This stance followed an October 1 incident in which Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, causing residents to take cover and prompting retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on October 26.

Limited Options for Iran Amid Regional Shifts

Analysts say that a second Trump term for Iran could be a “poisoned chalice,” with the nation already facing the combined pressures of regional shifts. The anticipated U.S.-Saudi defence pact, tied to the potential normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, poses another challenge to Iran’s influence in the region.

Meanwhile, Israel has continued its military campaign against Iranian proxies, with recent strikes against Hezbollah and Hamas leaders seen as successful.

This has limited Iran’s ability to use its regional allies as leverage. “This new architecture in the Middle East leaves Iran with fewer options,” said Hassan Hassan, an expert on Islamic groups, who noted that Trump’s return would further embolden Israel.

An anti-missile system fires interceptors at missiles fired from Iran, as seen in the West Bank on October 1, 2024. (Wisam Hashlamoun/Flash90)

Hassan added, “The reality is: Trump will support Netanyahu and allow him significant freedom in addressing Iran.”

Trump’s Legacy and Nuclear Concerns

Trump has remained critical of the current administration’s approach, citing President Joe Biden’s leniency in enforcing oil export sanctions. He argued that this has allowed Iran to ramp up nuclear activities, which Israel deems a significant security threat. If he returns to power, Trump has suggested a new nuclear deal, potentially replacing the 2015 accord with a longer-lasting agreement.

A handout picture provided by the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on November 2, 2024, shows students making a gesture seen as a threat to American troops during a meeting with him in Tehran. (Khamenei. ir/AFP)

Since the 2015 deal’s erosion, Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment. Today, Tehran claims it can enrich uranium up to 60% purity, nearing the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material. Iranian state media recently emphasised that this achievement strengthens the nation’s bargaining position, potentially deterring military action.

Still, regional officials warn that Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon may provoke an Israeli response, particularly if Trump returns to power and further supports Netanyahu’s agenda.