Historian Who Has Accurately Predicted Every Election Since 1984 Reveals Likely Winner in Trump-Harris Faceoff

Vice President Kamala Harris is currently favoured over former President Donald Trump in a potential 2024 presidential matchup, according to Allan Lichtman, a renowned election forecaster. Despite this indication, Lichtman has yet to issue his final election prediction.

Former President Trump arrives at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 16, 2024. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

Lichtman, who has accurately forecasted nearly every presidential race since 1984, employs a unique formula known as the “Keys to the White House” to make his predictions. This method involves 13 true-or-false questions to determine the likely victor in a presidential race.

Each question is evaluated for both major party candidates, with a “key” awarded for each “true” response and a point assigned to the opponent for each “false” response. A candidate who accumulates six or more keys is generally predicted to win.

At the outset of the election cycle, Democrats were granted an automatic “key” due to President Biden’s incumbency. As the race progresses, with Kamala Harris emerging as the likely Democratic nominee, the Democrats currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to Lichtman. These keys include favorable conditions such as a solid short-term economy, a lack of scandal, and no challenger charisma.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at her presidential campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 22, 2024. (Erin Schaff/Reuters)

In contrast, Republicans have secured three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the incumbent not seeking re-election, and the incumbent’s lack of charisma.

History professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his “Thirteen Keys to the White House” at American University in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28, 2008. (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images)

Four keys remain undecided, including factors like the influence of third-party candidates, social unrest, and foreign military outcomes.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. adds complexity to the third-party factor, while social unrest and foreign military successes or failures remain unresolved. If Democrats lose three more keys, they would be projected as the “losers” in Lichtman’s model.

While Lichtman’s final prediction is pending, he told News Nation that Harris would take significant adverse developments to lose. Lichtman, who accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 victory and Biden’s 2020 win, will finalize his forecast after the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August, when the party’s nominee is officially confirmed.