A former CIA director has warned that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO country if the war in Ukraine continues.
General David Petraeus, a retired US Army commander, said the Kremlin may soon shift its focus to the Baltics, posing a serious challenge to Western resolve.
Speaking at the Policy Exchange think-tank in London, he said an incursion could be used to test NATO’s unity or act as a springboard for a wider conflict.
Petraeus warned that Lithuania, in particular, is at risk due to its symbolic importance in President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to rebuild the Soviet sphere of influence.
“Once [Ukraine is] done, you are going to see Russians focus on one of the Baltic states,” he said.
“Lithuania has featured prominently in Putin’s speeches – and we should be listening,” he added.
The general pointed to past comments made by Putin, including his statement that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.
“That gives you an insight into Putin’s grievance-filled revisionist history,” Petraeus said.
Lithuania appears to be taking the threat seriously. It reinstated conscription in 2015 and, as of January, pledged to allocate 5% to 6% of GDP annually to defence through to 2030.
Turning to the role of US leadership, Petraeus criticised former President Donald Trump for giving Putin “too many second chances” and enabling “absolutely crazy” behaviour.
He said such actions undermined the West’s moral authority and may have emboldened Moscow’s aggression.
Petraeus also accused Russia of seeking to overthrow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and install a pro-Kremlin regime.
He argued that the Biden administration had frequently delayed supplying key weapons to Ukraine, hampering its ability to defend itself.
Whether it was F-16 fighter jets or long-range missile systems, he said, aid was often provided “too little, too late”.
“It was very unhelpful for the Ukrainians to go through the process, where each time they would ask for it, be told no or maybe, and then eventually get it,” Petraeus noted.
He urged a shift toward quicker, more decisive support for Ukraine.
“The bottom line is that we should have done so much for the Ukrainians that they could change the dynamic on the battlefield,” he said.
Only by convincing Moscow that further gains are impossible, he added, can Russia be brought to the negotiating table in earnest.
