Early Mail-in Voting Data Shows Promising Signs for GOP and Trump – Expert

Data from three crucial states reveals a significant decline in the Democratic advantage in vote-by-mail requests, suggesting a potential shift in voter behaviour that could favour Republicans in the upcoming election.

According to Decision Desk HQ, requests for mail-in ballots have decreased by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina, and more than 35% in Pennsylvania since the 2020 election.

Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, emphasised the importance of early voting for Republicans, stating, “It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote.” This change in dynamics allows campaigns to reallocate resources to focus on lower-propensity voters who are often pivotal in close elections.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Leadership Conference, at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Keady noted that once voters participate in early voting, campaigns can shift their outreach strategies, reducing the frequency of campaign communications like text messages and robocalls. This strategy can free up resources for targeting less-engaged voters who could determine the outcomes in swing states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Polling averages show Vice President Kamala Harris leading by less than a point in Pennsylvania, while former President Donald Trump holds a similarly narrow advantage in North Carolina. With such tight margins expected in these states, voter turnout efforts will be critical for both parties.

Keady believes that the Republican Party’s improved standing in mail-in and early voting reflects a growing acceptance among its base. “It definitely signals that A, there’s turnout… but B, also that the base has adopted early voting as a proper and mostly secure way to vote,” he stated.

The shifting momentum for Republicans in vote-by-mail requests could play a significant role in the 2024 election, especially since the Democratic advantage in these areas was likely instrumental in their success during the last election cycle. Keady urged his party to embrace early voting and mail-in ballots to compete effectively with Democrats, who have historically excelled in these voting methods. “As Republicans, we have to start getting the base to early vote, to do mail-in ballots, to do these things that we know are safe and secure,” he added.