The Dutch housing market is expected to slow more significantly in 2027 than previously forecast, as higher mortgage rates put increasing pressure on house prices and home sales.
ABN AMRO has lowered its forecast for Dutch house price growth next year from 4% to 2.5%, while also predicting a larger decline in housing transactions.
The bank nevertheless does not currently expect Dutch house prices to fall overall.
ABN AMRO raises 2026 house price forecast
ABN AMRO has upgraded its forecast for house price growth in 2026 from 3% to 3.8%.
The revision follows stronger-than-expected price growth during the first half of the year.
However, the bank expects the market to become weaker during the remainder of 2026, with prices forecast to remain broadly stable or decline slightly.
The change means the bank now expects a stronger result for the full year, followed by a more pronounced slowdown in 2027.
House price growth forecast to slow to 2.5%
For 2027, ABN AMRO has reduced its house price growth forecast from 4% to 2.5%.
The bank’s economists expect higher interest rates to place additional pressure on the housing market.
ABN AMRO’s latest outlook assumes that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates twice more. If borrowing costs increase, mortgage rates could put further pressure on households considering buying a home.
Despite the weaker outlook, ABN AMRO does not currently forecast an overall decline in Dutch house prices.
Home sales expected to fall
The bank has also become more cautious about the number of homes changing hands.
ABN AMRO now expects housing transactions to decline by 5.5% in 2027, compared with its previous forecast of a 4% fall.
Higher mortgage rates could make it more difficult for some households to finance purchases, potentially reducing the number of buyers able or willing to enter the market.
A slowdown in transactions does not necessarily mean house prices will fall. The Netherlands continues to face a shortage of homes, which can provide support for prices even when demand weakens.
Housing market differs across the Netherlands
House price growth is not uniform across the country.
ABN AMRO’s analysis shows significant differences between regions, with some areas experiencing much stronger increases than others.
Amsterdam recorded house price growth of only 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, while Groningen recorded growth of almost 8%.
Groningen, Drenthe and Gelderland were among the regions recording some of the strongest price increases.
Across the Netherlands, house prices increased by an average of 4.2% in the second quarter.
The regional differences highlight how national housing-market figures can conceal significant differences between individual cities and provinces.
Mortgage rates become a bigger concern
Mortgage rates are central to ABN AMRO’s more cautious outlook.
When mortgage borrowing becomes more expensive, buyers may have less purchasing power because a larger share of household income is required to service the mortgage.
That can affect both affordability and the price buyers are prepared to pay for homes.
For existing homeowners, higher rates can also become relevant when fixed-rate mortgage periods expire and loans are refinanced.
ABN AMRO therefore expects higher borrowing costs to contribute to the slowdown expected in 2027.
Government measures unlikely to change the market significantly
ABN AMRO also assessed housing-related measures announced by the Dutch government on Prinsjesdag.
The bank expects these measures to have limited influence on the overall housing market.
The forecast instead places greater emphasis on interest rates, affordability, housing supply and broader economic conditions.
Dutch housing shortage remains important
The expected slowdown comes against a background of persistent housing shortages in the Netherlands.
That shortage is one reason ABN AMRO does not currently expect house prices to decline despite weaker transaction volumes and higher mortgage rates.
A market can experience fewer sales while prices continue to rise if the supply of available homes remains limited.
This means the expected cooling in 2027 should not necessarily be interpreted as the beginning of a Dutch housing-market crash.
Instead, ABN AMRO’s forecast points towards slower price growth and fewer transactions.
What the forecast means for buyers
For prospective buyers, slower price growth could provide some relief compared with the stronger increases seen in previous years.
However, higher mortgage rates could offset some of that benefit by increasing the cost of financing a home.
Regional differences will also remain important.
Someone buying in Amsterdam, for example, is facing a different market from a buyer in Groningen or other parts of the Netherlands where prices have been rising more quickly.
A slower Dutch housing market in 2027
ABN AMRO’s latest forecast points to a Dutch housing market entering a slower phase.
House price growth is expected to fall from the stronger pace recorded in 2026, while transactions could decline by 5.5% in 2027.
Higher mortgage rates are expected to be a major factor behind the slowdown.
But with the Netherlands still facing a shortage of homes, ABN AMRO does not currently expect prices to decline nationally.
The result could therefore be a market characterised by slower price growth, fewer transactions and significant regional differences, rather than a broad-based fall in house prices.
Source: ABN AMRO housing-market forecast, as reported by NL Times.
