Dutch house prices are expected to continue rising through 2027 despite a significant increase in the number of homes coming onto the market and higher mortgage rates putting pressure on buyers.
ING forecasts that house prices in the Netherlands will increase by 2.5% in 2026 and by a further 1% in 2027.
The bank has reduced its previous forecasts but says the Dutch housing market remains too tight for the increase in supply to result in a broad decline in prices.
The latest outlook comes as more properties are being offered for sale, while higher borrowing costs are beginning to slow housing-market activity.
More homes are coming onto the market
The number of homes available for sale through NVM estate agents has more than doubled over the past five years.
According to ING, the number of properties listed through NVM agents has increased from around 18,000 to approximately 37,000.
Despite the increase, ING says the supply of homes remains limited compared with demand.
The rise in available properties therefore has not yet created the conditions for a significant fall in house prices.
Investors are selling more rental properties
A significant proportion of the additional homes coming onto the market in and around Dutch cities are former rental properties being sold by investors.
Around 40,000 rental homes were sold in the Netherlands during 2025, according to ING.
That represented roughly one in six existing homes sold across the country.
The proportion was considerably higher in the Netherlands’ four largest cities, where rental properties accounted for around one in three existing-home sales.
ING linked the increase in investor sales partly to government tax measures that have made it more difficult for some investors to operate rental properties profitably.
The result has been an increase in the number of previously rented homes entering the sales market.
Rural areas see a different source of supply
The increase in housing supply is not limited to the major cities.
In rural areas, ING says part of the increase is linked to older homeowners putting their properties on the market.
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Changes to taxation have also contributed to more holiday homes being offered for sale.
The combination of these factors has produced an unusual increase in the number of homes available to buyers.
ING noted that comparable increases in housing supply occurred between 2000 and 2005 and again between 2008 and 2013.
Those earlier periods were associated with weaker economic conditions that reduced demand for housing.
Higher mortgage rates are putting pressure on buyers
Higher borrowing costs are also affecting the Dutch housing market.
The average advertised interest rate for a 10-year fixed annuity mortgage with the National Mortgage Guarantee has risen to around 4.4%, compared with 3.6% a year earlier.
ING estimates that the increase in mortgage rates has pushed monthly mortgage payments approximately 6% higher.
Higher monthly costs can reduce the amount buyers are able or willing to pay for a property, potentially putting downward pressure on price growth.
However, the available supply remains insufficient, according to ING, to create a broad decline in Dutch house prices.
Dutch house-price growth is already slowing
Official figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) show that the housing market has begun to cool.
Existing home prices were 3.3% higher in August 2026 than in August 2025.
That was slower than the annual increase of 3.9% recorded in July.
Prices also fell by 0.1% between July and August.
The figures indicate that annual house-price growth is losing momentum, although prices remain higher than a year earlier.
Home sales also declined in August
The number of existing homes sold also fell on an annual basis in August.
There were 18,886 home transactions during the month, almost 3% fewer than in August 2025.
However, the monthly decline has not reversed the overall increase in transactions recorded during the year.
During the first eight months of 2026, more than 4% more homes were sold than during the same period in 2025.
The figures therefore show a market where activity has weakened in some areas while remaining relatively strong over the year as a whole.
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Growing supply has not yet matched demand
The increase in homes available for sale might normally be expected to put downward pressure on prices.
However, ING’s assessment is that the additional supply has not yet been large enough relative to demand to trigger a broad correction.
Investor sales have added thousands of former rental properties to the market, while additional properties are coming from rural areas and the holiday-home sector.
At the same time, higher mortgage rates are reducing buyers’ purchasing power.
The result is a housing market experiencing both increased supply and weaker demand, but where the underlying shortage of homes remains significant.
House prices expected to rise through 2027
ING expects Dutch house prices to increase by 2.5% in 2026 and another 1% in 2027.
The forecast represents a slower pace of growth than the Netherlands has experienced during periods of stronger house-price increases.
It also reflects the impact of higher mortgage rates and the growing number of properties available for sale.
However, ING does not expect these factors to result in a broad fall in prices because housing supply remains relatively constrained.
The forecast is an economic projection rather than a guarantee of future house-price movements.
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What the latest Dutch housing figures show
Key figures include:
- ING forecasts Dutch house prices to rise 2.5% in 2026.
- ING forecasts a further 1% increase in 2027.
- Homes listed through NVM estate agents have increased from around 18,000 to 37,000 over five years.
- Around 40,000 rental homes were sold in 2025.
- Rental properties represented roughly one in six existing-home sales nationally in 2025.
- In the Netherlands’ four largest cities, rental properties accounted for around one in three existing-home sales.
- The average advertised rate for a 10-year fixed annuity mortgage with the National Mortgage Guarantee reached around 4.4%, compared with 3.6% a year earlier.
- Existing home prices increased 3.3% year-on-year in August 2026.
- Prices fell 0.1% between July and August.
- There were 18,886 home transactions in August, almost 3% fewer than a year earlier.
- Home transactions during the first eight months of 2026 were more than 4% higher than during the same period in 2025.
The latest figures point to a Dutch housing market where supply is increasing and price growth is slowing, while the underlying shortage of homes continues to limit the downward pressure created by higher mortgage costs and additional properties coming onto the market.
Source: ING; Statistics Netherlands (CBS); NL Times.
