A couple whose earnings mirror those of a nurse and a garda bringing home a combined gross salary of €113,000 are being shut out of the new homes market across Dublin’s commuter counties, even when they arrive at the table with a full deposit and State support behind them.
That is the central finding of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland’s Residential Mid-Year Market Monitor, published today, which maps the growing distance between what working households earn and what the property market is now asking them to pay.
The survey focused on new, privately built three-bedroom semi-detached homes across four locations Kildare, Wicklow, Meath, and Cork. In three of the four, the median asking price has moved beyond €500,000.
Cork, at €490,000, is the only county where a couple on the benchmark income with a 10% deposit assembled through the Help to Buy scheme and personal savings can complete a purchase without running short.
County by County: The Gap in Numbers
The SCSI broke down the affordability shortfall in each location. In Kildare, the couple falls just under €25,000 short of what they need. In Wicklow, the gap is €20,500. In Meath it narrows to €11,500 still a significant sum to find on top of a deposit that has already stretched household finances. Only in Cork does the arithmetic work in the buyer’s favour.
Emer Byrne, Vice President of the SCSI, said the figures reflect a market reality that extends well beyond the benchmark couple used in the report’s modelling.
“It has to be remembered that there are thousands of people on lower salaries who will not be able to buy and will require support,” she said.
She pointed to a pattern that agents across the country are now consistently reporting — one in which income growth and property values are moving in opposite directions in the places where demand is greatest.
“Affordability remains a significant concern, particularly for first-time buyers seeking family-sized homes in commuter counties. The survey findings suggest that while government support schemes continue to assist some purchasers, rising house prices have outpaced improvements in purchasing power in several key locations,” Byrne said.
A Market That Has Tripled the Depth of Its Recovery
To understand where prices stand today, it helps to look at where they started. CSO data shows that national property prices have climbed approximately 181% from the floor they hit in early 2013 a recovery that has long since outpaced the pace of wage growth across most of the workforce.
As M10news reported earlier today, Irish mortgage lending has reached a record high in the first half of 2026, with first-time buyer drawdowns hitting their highest half-year value since the data series began. Yet today’s SCSI report makes clear that the ability to borrow and the ability to buy are no longer the same thing in many parts of the country the homes buyers need simply cost more than lenders are permitted to advance under Central Bank rules.
What Agents Are Expecting Next
The agents surveyed by the SCSI do not see significant relief on the horizon. Their consensus forecast for average national price growth over the next 12 months is 5% up slightly on the 4% predicted at the start of the year.
In six months, the share of agents who consider current property prices expensive or very expensive has jumped eight percentage points, from 84% to 92%.
Just 6% of agents believe prices represent fair value a figure that has halved over the past year. Close to two-thirds expect prices to keep climbing before eventually levelling off.
A further 18% believe the market may have already reached its peak, though that view remains a minority one among those working in the sector day to day.
The Rental Market Is Shrinking Too
Today’s report did not confine itself to the purchase market. It also flagged a shift in the rental sector that is likely to push more households toward homeownership even as that route becomes harder to access.
Following a series of new rental regulations that came into effect in March, smaller landlords have continued leaving the market in significant numbers.
The ownership of rental stock is becoming progressively more concentrated in the hands of larger institutional providers a structural change that tends to reduce the availability of modestly priced rental accommodation and limit choice for tenants who might otherwise remain in the rental sector while saving toward a purchase.
Agents reported sustained landlord exit activity throughout the first six months of the year, with no sign of that trend reversing in the near term.
The implications are significant. As M10news previously reported, only the top 20% of earners can currently afford private rental accommodation at prevailing market rates. As smaller landlords withdraw and rental stock tightens further, the pressure on middle-income households too well-off for social housing, too stretched for the private market will only intensify.
The Bigger Picture
Today’s findings land in a market where the supply problem has been identified, quantified, and debated for years without resolution.
The SCSI’s agents are clear on what needs to happen more homes need to be built, faster, in the locations where demand is greatest. Until that changes, the divergence between what households earn and what homes cost is likely to keep widening, regardless of what interest rates do or what support schemes the Government puts in place.
For the nurse, the garda, and the hundreds of thousands of workers like them trying to put down roots in commuter counties around Dublin, today’s report offers little comfort — and no clear indication of when the arithmetic might begin to work in their favour.
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