Former President Donald Trump projected strong confidence in his chances of winning the U.S. presidential election, asserting a “97% chance of victory” despite recent polls that show him running neck-and-neck with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Speaking at a campaign stop in Dearborn, Michigan, on Friday—just four days before Election Day—Trump highlighted his optimism and strong polling in crucial battleground states.
“We have polls that came out just now. We’re doing very well in Michigan, we’re doing very well in Pennsylvania, and we’re doing great in Arizona, eight or nine points up, something like that,” Trump told supporters at The Great Commoner restaurant in Dearborn. “And overall, we’re going extremely well—somebody said a 97% chance of winning, you saw that? Ninety-seven per cent.” Trump did not provide further details on the source of this percentage but continued with a pointed remark that “nobody’s going to vote for Kamala.”
However, national polling data reflects a much closer race. On Friday, RealClearPolitics showed Trump leading Harris by just 0.3 points, with 48.4% to her 48.1%.
Meanwhile, a Times and YouGov poll released the same day showed Harris slightly ahead, with projected wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada—while Trump was forecasted to take North Carolina and Georgia, with Arizona classified as a toss-up.
Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to Metro for comment on his claims.
However, he repeated the “97% chance” figure Friday night during a rally in Warren, Michigan, emphasising that his supporters should continue to vote despite favourable polling. “Don’t believe the polls that we’re way up or that we’re pretty far up…just pretend we’re one point down—we’re not, we’re up—but pretend we’re one point down,” he urged.
Trump did not specify which pollster he was referring to, though many consider FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver among the top names in election forecasting.
Based on hypothetical scenarios, a recent FiveThirtyEight modelling tool showed Trump a 97% chance of winning the election if he were to secure wins in sunbelt states such as Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—states he would need to flip from the 2020 election.
As Election Day approaches, polling reflects a tightly contested race, with both campaigns focused on mobilising supporters in crucial swing states.
