In anticipation of the November ballot, abortion has become a prominent issue in both Arizona and Florida, as indicated by recent polling data.
However, it may not be the decisive factor favouring President Biden’s reelection bid.
A CBS/YouGov survey reveals that while voters in both states overwhelmingly support abortion access, former President Donald Trump maintains a lead over Biden, with 52% to 47% in Arizona and 54% to 45% in Florida.
Traditionally, Democrats have capitalized on abortion as a hot-button issue, yet the poll suggests this advantage may not be as potent as in previous elections.
In Florida, where the state’s supreme court recently upheld a six-week abortion ban and approved a referendum to protect abortion access, Democrats face a formidable challenge.
The referendum requires a daunting 60% voter approval, indicating a steep climb for proponents of abortion rights.
Despite Florida’s historical battleground status, its political landscape has shifted notably towards the Republican Party in recent years, with most registered voters now aligning with the GOP.
Nevertheless, the Biden-Harris campaign remains engaged in Florida, maintaining a presence and conducting outreach efforts to sway voters.
In both Florida and Arizona, the polling data reveals strong public support for abortion rights, with 65% in Florida and 66% in Arizona advocating for legal abortion in most or all cases.
However, when considering voters’ priorities for the 2024 election, abortion ranks lower on the list compared to other pressing issues such as the economy, inflation, democracy, crime, and immigration policy.
In Arizona, Governor Katie Hobbs recently signed a bill repealing a longstanding law restricting abortions, signalling a shift towards greater reproductive rights in the state.
Activists in Arizona have mobilized efforts to secure a ballot initiative in November aimed at enshrining abortion rights in the state’s constitution, reflecting a broader push for reproductive freedom.
Despite Trump’s narrow loss in Arizona to Biden in 2020 and his victory over Biden in Florida, the former president has taken a nuanced stance on abortion, expressing deference to states’ rights while also criticizing Arizona’s abortion policies.
The CBS/YouGov poll, conducted in March, sampled 1,510 adults in Arizona and 1,576 adults in Florida, with margins of error of plus or minus 3.3 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively.
As the November election approaches, the issue of abortion is poised to remain a focal point in both states, shaping the discourse and potentially influencing voter turnout and electoral outcomes.
