Trump Maintains Lead in Iowa Caucuses, but Support Dips as Nikki Haley Gains Momentum

Former President Donald Trump continues to top Republican candidates running for president in 2024, according to the most recent Iowa Caucuses poll. His support has, however, somewhat declined from the previous month; only 48% of potential Republican caucus attendees ranked him as their top pick, down from 51% in December.

Despite this dip, Trump remains well-positioned to secure a significant victory margin, potentially setting a record for the largest margin of victory in a contested Republican Iowa caucus in recent presidential campaign history. Trump expressed confidence in his grassroots supporters, urging them to turn out for him on caucus day.

48% of Republican caucusgoers say Donald Trump is their first choice in Iowa, per a recent poll. Getty Images

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has made significant gains, securing second place with 20% support, surpassing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who now holds 16%. The dynamics between Haley and DeSantis shifted, with Haley gaining four points and DeSantis losing three.

4

Nikki Haley gained ground in the new poll. Getty Images

While Trump’s lead has narrowed, the poll indicates that his support base is more steadfast, with 82% of his voters firmly committed to him as their first choice. In contrast, Haley’s support appears more uncertain, with only 63% of her voters expressing unwavering support. DeSantis maintains a solid base with 64% steadfast support.

Ron DeSantis placed third with 16 per cent support in the poll. Getty Images

With 25% of Iowans still open to persuasion and 7% undecided on their first-choice candidate, Haley and DeSantis face a competitive battle for these voters.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer noted that Haley’s apparent strength in the poll may not necessarily translate to success on caucus night, drawing parallels to the 2016 Republican caucus, where Ted Cruz emerged victorious despite Trump leading in preceding polls.

The final poll arrives just two days before the high-stakes caucus, and concerns are raised about potential disruptions due to severe storms labelled as “life-threatening” by weather officials. The poll, conducted from Jan. 7-12 with 705 likely Republican caucusgoers, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.