Republican Tim Sheehy Leads Sen. Jon Tester in Key Poll as GOP Eyes Senate Flip

Control of the Senate is likely to swing from Democrats to Republicans this fall, as one of the most vulnerable Democrats, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, trails his Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.

Tester, who has been in office since 2006, faces a tough re-election fight in Montana. There, conservative sentiment is strong, and former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 17 percentage points.

The poll shows Sheehy, a Republican businessman and former Navy SEAL with no prior political experience, ahead of Tester by 52% to 44%. Although Tester is performing well among moderate and independent voters, the state’s overwhelmingly conservative leanings may not be enough to keep him in office.

With Republicans already set to pick up a seat following Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement in West Virginia, Democrats cannot afford to lose additional seats if they hope to maintain a Senate majority. Currently, Republicans need just a few more seats to regain control.

Tester’s race is just one of several battleground contests this year. In key states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Democrats are in tight races, but the party has few opportunities to flip Republican-held seats.

In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz leads his Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred by 4 points, while in Florida, Sen. Rick Scott holds a 9-point advantage over Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. With over $265 million spent on television ads in Montana alone, the race is shaping to be a pivotal moment for Senate control in the 2024 election.