Trump and Harris Tied in Critical Battleground States: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina Poll Shows

A recent Marist College poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied in three pivotal battleground states.

The survey, released on Thursday, shows both candidates at 49% among likely voters in North Carolina. Among those who have made their choice, a significant 91% express strong support for their selected candidate.

In Arizona, Trump holds a slim lead over Harris, with 50% to Harris’s 49%. The results are similarly tight in Georgia, where 50% of likely voters lean towards Trump and 49% favour Harris.

Conducted between September 19 and 24, the Marist Poll surveyed 4,643 registered voters across these three states, all committed to voting in the upcoming election. These states collectively hold 43 Electoral College votes.

Historically, Trump won all three states in the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton but lost Arizona and Georgia to President Biden in 2020. This year, North Carolina, a critical swing state that Trump won twice, is incredibly competitive.

Former President Trump arrives for a campaign rally on Saturday at Wilmington International Airport in Wilmington, North Carolina. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is embroiled in a scandal over alleged inappropriate online posts, which may impact his campaign against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein.

Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, commented, “North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is both the Harris and Trump campaigns’ backup plan after the hard-fought battle over Pennsylvania. The state is so close that its five regions align almost exactly as they did four years ago, suggesting a stagnant political landscape.”

Among North Carolina independents, Harris and Trump are tied at 48%. While Biden won the support of independents in the state by four points in 2020, Harris has garnered 86% of Black voters compared to Trump’s 13%. However, she fell short of Biden’s 92% support among Black voters in 2020.

Harris campaigns in Georgia, highlighting the issue of abortion. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Trump maintains an advantage among white voters, leading Harris 59% to 40%, although Harris has improved her standing within this demographic compared to Biden, who won only 33% of white voters in 2020.

Critical issues for North Carolina voters include inflation (32%), preserving democracy (28%), immigration (14%), and abortion (11%). In Arizona, Harris leads 51% to 47% among independents, while Trump retains a slight lead among white voters (51% to 48%). The Latino vote in Arizona is competitive, with 51% leaning toward Trump and 49% toward Harris.

Voter priorities in Arizona are similar to those in North Carolina, with preserving democracy (27%) and inflation (26%) at the forefront of concerns.

Harris leads Trump among independents in Georgia by five points (51% to 46%). The state has a complex electoral history and was a focal point for election controversies in 2020.

Despite the turbulence, most Georgians express confidence in the fairness of upcoming elections, a sentiment shared by Democrats and Republicans.

Inflation ranks as the primary issue for Georgia voters (34%), followed by preserving democracy (24%), immigration (13%), and abortion (11%).

A Fox News national poll conducted after the first debate between Harris and Trump revealed that 39% of voters consider the economy their most pressing issue, outpacing concerns about immigration (16%) and abortion (15%).

Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that while Trump holds a slight advantage on economic issues, this edge has diminished due to Harris’s messaging targeting middle-class concerns regarding housing costs and taxes.