Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in six critical battleground states, according to new polling data from Emerson College and The Hill.
The surveys reveal Trump edging out Biden in Arizona (47%-43%), Georgia (45%-41%), Michigan (46%-45%), Nevada (46%-43%), Pennsylvania (47%-45%), and Wisconsin (47%-44%).
These leads have either remained steady or increased since last month, despite Trump being convicted on 34 business fraud charges by a Manhattan jury.
“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” noted Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling Executive Director. The results fall within the poll’s margin of error.
Independent voters in these states generally lean towards Trump, though his support among independents has fluctuated.
In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped from 48% to 43%, in Michigan from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania from 49% to 41%. Conversely, Biden saw a drop in independent support in Georgia (from 42% to 36%) and Nevada (from 37% to 32%).
The RealClearPolitics polling average also shows Trump leading Biden in these battleground states, with margins ranging from 0.2 percentage points in Michigan to 5.7 points in Nevada. Despite this, Democrats in key Senate races are performing better than Biden. In Arizona, Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 45% to 41%.
In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is ahead of Republican nominee Sam Brown 50% to 38%, and in Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin narrowly leads Republican Eric Hovde 46% to 44%.
Biden’s approval ratings are low in these states, with disapproval ratings between 35% in Georgia and 39% in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The economy is the top issue for voters in all six states, with significant portions of registered voters citing it as their primary concern.
Secondary issues vary by state. In Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, “threats to democracy” are a significant concern. Immigration is a close second to the economy in Arizona, with 26% of voters naming it their top issue.
Additionally, 55% of Arizona voters support a ballot measure to allow state and local police to arrest illegal immigrants and enable state judges to order deportations.
Majorities in Arizona (56%) and Nevada (58%) also support ballot measures to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions.
Healthcare is the second most important issue in Georgia, while housing ranks second in Nevada. The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, conducted from June 13-18, sampled 1,000 registered voters in each state with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Biden and Trump are expected to face off in their first general election debate next Thursday in Atlanta, setting the stage for a highly anticipated clash.
