A fresh poll conducted immediately after former President Trump’s conviction in New York reveals a notable shift among Republicans, with one in ten registered GOP voters expressing decreased inclination to support him in the upcoming November elections.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted over two days following the jury’s verdict on Thursday, found Trump guilty on all charges of falsifying business records brought against him by District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
Among Republican voters surveyed, 56% indicated that the case’s outcome would not sway their voting decisions, while 35% asserted they were more inclined to support Trump, who maintains his innocence. However, losing even a tenth of Republican voters could potentially undermine the presumptive GOP nominee’s prospects, particularly in crucial battleground states pivotal to President Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump.
Independent registered voters also showed a notable response to Trump’s conviction, with 25% expressing a decreased likelihood of supporting him in November, compared to 18% indicating increased support and 56% reporting no influence on their decision.
Despite these shifts, the survey underscores a tight race between Biden and Trump, with 41% of respondents indicating support for Biden if the election were held today, closely followed by 39% backing Trump. The poll, encompassing 2,556 U.S. adults nationwide with a 2-percentage-point margin of error for registered voters, emphasizes the evolving dynamics in the lead-up to the presidential election, scheduled in a little over five months.
While Trump’s conviction and pending legal battles loom large, with scheduled sentencing on July 11, the survey also reflects divided opinions on the question of imprisonment. Approximately 53% of registered voters oppose Trump serving time for the hush money case, while 46% advocate for his incarceration.
The Republican National Convention, slated for Milwaukee, Wisconsin, four days after Trump’s sentencing, remains a pivotal event. Notably, the absence of specific provisions addressing the consequences of a presumptive nominee’s criminal conviction underscores the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s future political endeavours.
Trump’s persistent dismissal of his prosecution as a politically motivated “witch hunt,” targeting individuals like District Attorney Bragg and Judge Juan Merchan, underscores the deeply polarized perceptions among voters. While 52% view the prosecution as a defence of the rule of law, 46% perceive it as an effort to impede Trump’s return to the White House.
As legal proceedings unfold, with Trump indicted in three other criminal cases, including charges of electoral fraud and mishandling classified documents, the majority of registered voters emphasize the importance of these trials preceding the election. Sixty per cent underscore the significance of addressing these cases before the election, underscoring the electorate’s keen interest in accountability and transparency ahead of the impending electoral contest.
