ABC News/Ipsos Poll: Trump Leads in Trust for Handling Issues, Biden Competitive on Personal Attributes as Election Day Nears

Locked in a tight race for the presidency, Donald Trump prevails in trust to handle most issues in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, yet President Joe Biden scores competitively on key personal attributes — leaving wide open the question of who’ll prevail come Election Day, now six months away.

Excluding people who say they wouldn’t vote, Trump has 46% support, and Biden 44%, according to this national survey of more than 2,200 adults. (Nearly all the rest say they’d pick someone else.)

Among registered voters, Biden is 46%, and Trump is 45%. Among likely voters, Biden is 49% and Trump 45%, again, not a significant difference.

A five-way contest doesn’t change the picture in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos. This finds the race at 42% for Trump and 40% for Biden, 12% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2% for Cornel West and 1% for Jill Stein. (That assumes Kennedy, West, and Stein are on the ballot in all states; it’s an open question.)

Among registered voters in the five-way race, it’s 42-42%, Biden-Trump, and Biden is a non-significant +3 or +4 points in likely voter models.

Support for Trump if convicted

ABC News / IPSOS Poll

Kennedy got 12% even though 77% of his supporters said they knew “just some” or “hardly anything” about his positions on the issues. Notably, his supporters are more apt to be Republicans or GOP-leaning independents (54%) than Democrats and Democratic leaners (42%, a slight difference given sample sizes), and in a two-way race, they favour Trump over Biden by 13 points. That may explain why Trump attacked Kennedy as a stalking horse in social media posts last week.

issue) and health care, +5.

Election issues: importance and trust

ABC News / IPSOS Poll

Another result finds a potential risk for Trump in his current trial in New York on charges of falsifying business records to hide a payoff to an Adult actress who says they had sex, which he denies. Eighty per cent of Trump’s supporters say they’d stick with him even if he’s convicted of a felony in this case.

But that leaves 20% who say they’d either reconsider their support (16%) or withdraw it (4%) — easily enough to matter in a close race.

That said, a chief question raised by the survey is why Biden is competitive, given his substantial disadvantages. Just 35% of Americans approve of his job performance, with 57% disapproving; that’s 2 points from his career low in approval in January and well below the level historically associated with reelection.

Forty-three per cent say they’ve gotten worse off financially under his presidency. An overwhelming 81% say he’s too old for another term. Trump easily outpoints him in perceived mental sharpness and physical health.

Favorably, 33%.

Personal favorability

ABC News / IPSOS Poll

Trump, moreover, leads in trust to handle six of 10 issues tested in the survey, with Biden ahead in just two. That includes, for Trump, the three most-cited issues in importance — the economy, on which he has a 14-point advantage; inflation, again 14 points; and crime and safety, 8 points.

Personal attributes

ABC News / IPSOS Poll

He tops out with a 17-point lead in trust to handle immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border and leads by 8 points in trust to handle the war between Israel and Hamas and 7 points on “America’s standing in the world.” Biden’s leads are on abortion access (+12, but comparatively low-rated as an issue) and health care, +5.

Broad 66-21%.

Financial situation and Biden’s approval

ABC News / IPSOS Poll

It’s also the case that Biden lacks traditional Democratic advantages among young adults and Hispanic people, and he’s about 20 points weaker among Black people under age 50 than among those 50 and older. But he and Trump run essentially evenly, 42-40%, among independents, who are swing voters in most presidential elections; Biden leads by 11 points among moderates and among those who have held steady financially — not gaining ground but at least not losing it — he’s up by a broad 66-21%.