A recent poll by Emerson College shows Donald Trump leading President Biden in all seven critical swing states, with an even wider margin when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included.
Trump holds the most significant margins against Biden in North Carolina (47-42%), Arizona (48-44%), and Georgia (47-44%). He also leads in Michigan and Nevada by 45-44% and in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 47-45%.
With undecided rates ranging from 8% to 11%, there is potential for both parties to sway voters before the November elections.
When third-party candidates are factored in, Biden loses more ground than Trump. RFK Jr. draws more votes away from Biden in several states, widening the gap between Trump and Biden.
Kennedy garners 9% in Arizona, while Biden receives 40% compared to Trump’s 44%. In other states, RFK Jr. polls at 5% to 6%, leading to Biden’s lower percentages.
However, Kennedy’s candidacy still challenges getting on the ballot in all 50 states. Campaign officials indicate progress in Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Conducted from April 25-29, the poll has a 3% credibility interval and surveyed 1,000 registered voters in each state via cell phones, landlines, and an online panel.
While Trump maintains an edge over Biden in swing states, the survey indicates a different trend in Senate races. In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake are in a close race to replace outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick by a narrow margin.
Democrats also lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina Senate races, indicating a potentially different outcome than the presidential race.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde by a slight margin, with undecided voters potentially playing a crucial role in determining the race’s outcome.
Similarly, in Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin holds a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers, with a significant portion of voters undecided.
The survey results highlight the dynamic nature of electoral politics, shifting fortunes for candidates across different races. While Trump maintains popularity in crucial swing states, Senate races present a more varied landscape, with Democrats holding onto narrow leads in some instances, suggesting potential for competitive contests leading up to the elections.
